“Well that’s just more proof that it’s all rigged!”

• Some Trumper

A few things to keep in mind.

• Georgia is a battleground state.
• When the GOP isn’t putting up literal pedophiles and football players with lots of CTE and no political experience, Georgia tends to vote pretty deep red. At least, deep enough where they’re normally considered safe Republican.
• Georgia is home to Margorie Taylor Greene, who holds a very safe seat in Georgia despite being absolutely batshit crazy.
• The current mail-in counts skew noticeably towards women, who currently are nationally favoring Trump by about 3 points.
• The Hispanic population of Georgia has also grown by several thousand people in the past two years, and Trump has managed to erase the lead among Hispanic voters that Democrats normally rely on.

The fact that mail-in voting has spiked so heavily in Georgia may not be the saving grace Democrats think it is.

Here’s the way I look at it.

I don’t consider North Carolina and Georgia battleground states. Those are probably going to go pretty decisively to Trump. There’s a lot of fuckery going around in Arizona which gets me to believe that Arizona will go to Trump as well. I think Nevada will ultimately be irrelevant. Harris needs to pick up Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and either Michigan or flip Arizona to win. I think that’s her only path.

• I believe Wisconsin and Michigan will go to Democrats
• Trump absolutely will challenge Pennsylvania if he doesn’t win. And with the recent headlines, it’s not the desperate grasping at straws that Trump was doing in 2020. At least in the forum of public opinion, he’ll have a case. He also knows that the court system has historically largely deferred to Trump, either out of party loyalty or fear of retribution, and that the Supreme Court has all but announced they’re ready to anoint him as king, and in the case of a contested election, rules set forth by the Constitution heavily favor Trump.

This election is not going to be pretty. Remember that we have nearly 50% of the voting public who are seeing Trump’s rise to facist power and are actively saying “Yes, we know he’s a bigoted facist. We want it that way.” And they’ve already proven that if they can’t get there legitimately, they will resort to cheating. And if that doesn’t work, they’ll just threaten violence until a judge rules in Trump’s favor out of fear for his life.

Never underestimate the appeal of a strongman dictator who promises that he’s willing to solve all of your problems by going after “them”. That is a very strong motivator for a lot of people.

Here are the numbers: https://www.georgiavotes.com/

I like that it’s overall mostly women by a large spread, I don’t like that the non-voters leans towards men. Non-voting dude-bros were a target Trump constituency.

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