- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
This is the first poll taken after the conviction, and has us at 41% Biden/39% Trump
Actual voting preferences differ only slightly from one the same pollster took in early May, which had us at 35% Biden/36% Trump.
Having a solid sense of how the conviction will impact things will likely take a week or so as news percolates and people talk.
I’ll also note that these to polls are polls of adults, which tend to favor Trump by a little bit more than polls of registered voters or of likely voters.
Archived copies of the article: archive.today ghostarchive.org
Are polls trustworthy again? I thought it was too far out.
Polls are only good for confirmation bias.
It’s trivial to game a poll via phrasing and user selection.
Here on lemmy, polls are only used as evidence if it confirms the poster’s biases. Otherwise, they’re waved off as unreliable.
They’re enough to tell us that we’re seeing a little bit of movement in response to Trump’s guilty verdict, and that the election is close enough that it could easily go either way
So we will hold that same standard in a few days when fresh polling comes out showing Trump still beating Biden?
Not really, and there’s often slight changes around news cycles that erase after a few weeks. Too early to say if this will actually stick.