Prediction: Bibi’s gonna do it anyway in an attempt to get Harris to lose (gas price increases in the US) and get Trump reelected. Trump then signs Bibi’s get-out-of-jail-free card, and he’s good to continue.
I don’t think Bibi’s choices will affect the U.S. election, only if Biden chooses to get American forces directly involved, which is not what’s happening.
An attack that damages oil infra that reduces oil supply will immediately result in oil price increases. It doesn’t even have to materially affect the supply yet for the prices to react. It doesn’t matter who conducts the attack either. The prices at the pump in the US will follow shortly after. I think I heard the estimate is 5%. Then corpos will raise prices because “oil went up by 5%” and you have inflation in an election period following a period of high inflation that Democrats just managed to get down. Trump will frame it as geopolitical and economic mismanagement. This could tip the scales in a close election enough for it to go to Trump.
Then there’s the possibility of retaliatory attacks on tankers in the Red Sea. There’s another 5-10% expected from that.
None of this mechanism depends on US army’s involvement in the conflict.
Perhaps. On the other hand, conservatives love supporting Israel and attacking Muslims, so maybe that’ll balance things out? Regardless, I don’t an increase in oil prices will tip the scales anywhere near as much as direct U.S. military involvement would. It’s a complex calculus.
Prediction: Bibi’s gonna do it anyway in an attempt to get Harris to lose (gas price increases in the US) and get Trump reelected. Trump then signs Bibi’s get-out-of-jail-free card, and he’s good to continue.
I don’t think Bibi’s choices will affect the U.S. election, only if Biden chooses to get American forces directly involved, which is not what’s happening.
An attack that damages oil infra that reduces oil supply will immediately result in oil price increases. It doesn’t even have to materially affect the supply yet for the prices to react. It doesn’t matter who conducts the attack either. The prices at the pump in the US will follow shortly after. I think I heard the estimate is 5%. Then corpos will raise prices because “oil went up by 5%” and you have inflation in an election period following a period of high inflation that Democrats just managed to get down. Trump will frame it as geopolitical and economic mismanagement. This could tip the scales in a close election enough for it to go to Trump.
Then there’s the possibility of retaliatory attacks on tankers in the Red Sea. There’s another 5-10% expected from that.
None of this mechanism depends on US army’s involvement in the conflict.
Perhaps. On the other hand, conservatives love supporting Israel and attacking Muslims, so maybe that’ll balance things out? Regardless, I don’t an increase in oil prices will tip the scales anywhere near as much as direct U.S. military involvement would. It’s a complex calculus.
Oh direct involvement would definitely make a bigger move. In which direction I don’t know.