Hopium? This blog is suggesting an incredible margin of victory for Harris.

VDH is the website. They are outright calling respected meta-polls FiveThirtyEight and RCP completely wrong. Their overall argument is that the Senate-race is incredibly favored in the Democrat’s favor.

I don’t know if I necessarily believe that argument. But its still interesting to think about. Discuss?

  • Snot Flickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zoneEnglish
    241·
    3 days ago

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#2023_cost-cutting_and_2024_elections

    1. Why is 538 still respect when it’s a shell of what it used to be?

    2. Nate Silver is a degenerate gambler who was gambling up to $10k a day while running 538, and has been completely taken in by gambling bros chicanery.

    3. That’s why suddenly everyone cares about what gamblers say about who is going to win, despite the fact that gambles are heavily gamed by the richest. Of course it looks like Trump is favored to win if you look at gambling polls, because all the rich twats who are for him and dropping the bets to make it look like he’ll win. These are the type of scumfucks that have sucked in Silver.

    In May 2023, ABC News hired G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for The Economist who has often been described as a rival of Silver, to head the site as editorial director of data analytics. At 538, Morris developed a new election forecasting model of the 2024 election. In the leadup to Biden’s withdrawal, 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election. Silver criticized Morris’s model, describing it as at best ignoring the polls and giving Biden positive odds merely due to his incumbency, and at worst as being “buggy”. The election forecast remained suspended for a month after Biden withdrew, before being replaced by a new model for Kamala Harris versus Trump that put more emphasis on polling.

    Who cares about Silver’s opinion, but it’s super clear Morris was fucking up from the get-go.

    • just_another_person@lemmy.world
      7·
      3 days ago

      Maybe Silver was never good at the polling game to begin with. He got 2008 right, and then just coasted after the upset.

      Correlation of a large amount of data isn’t like some quantifiable thing. The larger the data set, the more knobs get turned, and the outcome can be almost whatever you want it to be for however you process that. The reason NS never wanted to open source his stuff is because it was largely just tweaked here and there, and didn’t offer much in NEW insights. It was nothing, and largely inaccurate, because the polling data is inaccurate, or not a representative of the actual populace going to vote.