Edit First vote is in! Dixville Notch, New Hampshire!
Tie Vote 3-3!
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-2024-results/index.html
“Dixville Notch voters have supported the Democratic nominee the last two presidential elections, with the township in 2020 unanimously casting five votes for President Joe Biden and with Hillary Clinton in 2016 winning four of seven votes — two went to Trump and one to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson.”
This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.
Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can’t start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.
Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don’t report until ALL 1,800 are in.
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier
Currently 232 EC votes from Blue States:
4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6
93 EC votes from Battleground States:
10+16+15+16+19+11+6
Which leaves 213 EC votes in Red States.
9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11 +4+3+4+4+3
270 to Win.
Online map here!
8 PM Eastern / 5 PM Pacific
Puerto Rico -
United States Virgin Islands -
(D 7 EC Votes) Connecticut -
(D 3) Delaware -
(D 3) District of Columbia -
(R 30) Florida - Partialy Eastern
(BG 16) Georgia -
(R 11) Indiana - Partialy Eastern
(R 8) Kentucky - Partialy Eastern
(D 4) Maine - Proportional
(D 10) Maryland -
(D 11) Massachusetts -
(BG 15) Michigan - Partialy Eastern
(D 4) New Hampshire - Dixville Notch 3-3 tie vote.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-2024-results/index.html
(D 14) New Jersey -
(D 28) New York -
(BG 16) North Carolina -
(R 17) Ohio -
(BG 19) Pennsylvania -
(D 4) Rhode Island -
(R 9) South Carolina -
(R 11) Tennessee - Partialy Eastern
(D 3) Vermont -
(D 13) Virginia -
(R 4) West Virginia -2 AM Eastern / 11 PM Pacific
(D - 4 EC votes) Hawaii -9 PM Eastern / 6 PM Pacific
(R 9 EC Votes) Alabama -
(R 6) Arkansas -
(D 19) Illinois -
(R 6) Iowa -
(R 6) Kansas - Partly Central time
(R 8) Louisiana -
(D 10) Minnesota -
(R 6) Mississippi -
(R 10) Missouri -
(R 5) Nebraska - Proportional Partly Central time
(R 3) North Dakota - Partly Central time
(R 7) Oklahoma -
(R 3) South Dakota - Partly Central time
(R 40) Texas - Partly Central time
(BG 10) Wisconsin -1 - 2 AM Eastern / 10 - 11 PM Pacific
(R 3 EC Votes) Alaska -11 PM Eastern / 8 PM Pacific
(D 54 EC Votes) California -
(D 12) Washington -10 PM Eastern / 7 PM Pacific
(BG 11 EC Votes) Arizona -
(D 10) Colorado -
(R 4) Idaho - Partly Mountain Time
(R 4) Montana -
(BG 6) Nevada - Partly Mountain Time
(D 5) New Mexico -
(D 8) Oregon - Partly Mountain Time
(D 6) Utah -
(R 3) Wyoming -First results are in. 3 for Harris and 3 for Trump in Dixville Notch.
3 hours to the next. Gyam, Northern Mariana Islands, but no EC votes.
Thanks so much for doing this Jordan. You’re very appreciated!
Here we go! Last run through the polls before the election!
Arizona - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Trump +1 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/Georgia - Toss-Up - Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Trump +2 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania - Toss-Up Harris +1/+2 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Toss-Up Tie, Harris +1 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin - Toss-Up, Harris +1/+3 to Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Plotted on the map:
Advantage is with Trump in this scenario.
Assuming he takes Georgia, 2020 was an anomaly in my mind, GA has gone Republican in every other election since 1996, that gives Trump 264.
Which means if Harris loses ANY other state, she’s done. She has to sweep PA, MI and WI to hit 274.
If the disaffected Arab vote in MI is enough to flip it, plus a Trump win in Georgia, that puts him at 279 to Harris 259. A scarily likely scenario.
Honestly, with all the news showing how poll herding has been happening, I think it’s quite likely she sweeps the swing states. I’m less nervous now than I was a few days ago.
My prediction is still Harris takes the popular vote, Trump the EC. I hate it here.
Trump hasn’t won a popular vote yet, so that’s a good call!
Harris rally live with Oprah and Lady Gaga https://www.youtube.com/live/HUbZ1vD9ChY
My favorite take on this comes from James Carville:
“I’m gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing.”
What a year it’s been here in the politics channel. I’m still here. Exhausted.
I will be voting tomorrow in person at my polling place before work.
Good for you! We just got the email at work “Hey, do your civic duty, if you need time off to vote, ask your manager.”
Of course, I’m vote by mail, ballot’s been in since 10/24.
Any predictions on what musk / xitter’s role in all this will be?
They can basically call states for republicans early.
Musk will likely be promoting anything claiming a Trump win, but I don’t think X has their own election coverage, do they?
That’s kind of what I mean. They don’t have their own formal coverage, but they can manipulate the prevalence of different narratives.
If officials refuse to certify whatever states, having the perceived support of the public can make all the difference.
When you should know
"Near-complete election results are expected from Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan on Tuesday night, but only partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, Harris-Walz campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters in a Monday afternoon briefing,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Dillon predicted additional results from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be available earlier in the day Wednesday, with Arizona and Nevada trickling in the rest of the week.”
Said Dillon: “We’re going to continue to see new votes being reported for many days after Election Day. We believe this race is going to be incredibly close, so we may not know the results of this election for several days.”
