Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn’t have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.

States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.

States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.

The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.

Arizona: Trump +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Georgia: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

Michigan: Biden +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Minnesota: Biden +3 same problem as New Mexico, it’s an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Nevada: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico: Biden +6 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

Pennsylvania: Biden +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Wisconsin: Trump +4, but same problem as New Mexico, it’s an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/

Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2020-PG-no-allocations&game-view=map

Trump wins, 278 to 260.

Biden needs to pick up +10.

He could do that in Wisconsin, which Clinton famously ignored in 2016 and Biden carried in 2020.

Same for Arizona, Clinton lost it in 2016, Biden carried it in 2020.