Hello,

I made beatthecouch.com in July and it’s basically a game where you try to beat the S&P 500 and buy/sell when you want. Your opponent is a couch. It buys on day one and never sells.

Now over 100K+ games later, the hypothesis stands: it’s not wise to try to trade and time the market. Here’s the original data from the actual games itself.

Source: the game’s own database, every completed game Jul 12 to Aug 28. Tool: Python and matplotlib. Market data: S&P 500 daily total returns 1928 to 2019.

thanks!

  • Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In@lemmy.worldEnglish
    31·
    12 days ago

    It’s not misleading

    It is. There is absolutely no evidence that future performance will favor active management.

    The more the market is dominated by simplistic funds the less it behaves like the past 100 years, and the less useful past statistics are at predicting the future.

    Citation needed.

    At the extreme I agree with you. If 100% of investors are passive then there is no information discovery. But words like “dominated”, “less useful”, “stagnant” betray your bias and weak foundational thinking.

    Academic consensus is that, net of fees, average active management does not beat a low-cost index fund.