Hello,

I made beatthecouch.com in July and it’s basically a game where you try to beat the S&P 500 and buy/sell when you want. Your opponent is a couch. It buys on day one and never sells.

Now over 100K+ games later, the hypothesis stands: it’s not wise to try to trade and time the market. Here’s the original data from the actual games itself.

Source: the game’s own database, every completed game Jul 12 to Aug 28. Tool: Python and matplotlib. Market data: S&P 500 daily total returns 1928 to 2019.

thanks!

  • Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
    1·
    12 days ago

    That was the S&P 500 - it almost did it but went back on that proposal and ended up not doing it.

    The story with the NASDAQ 100 was very different and Space X was added to the index (if I remember it correctly) just one week after its IPO. You can check that it’s part of it, for example here (just search for SPCX) - under normal conditions it would have taken at least 1 year after IPO before Space X was added to the index.