I just meant that there are around 500 confirmed cases. There are probably many that have yet to be confirmed and others where it’ll never be possible to confirm. So ~500 is the floor not the ceiling.

I read that more as “at least 500.”

This is a gift link, btw, so anyone can listen to the actual audio recordings.

The story of the story of the insurrection! “Whatta boob!”

He has a real Michael McKean vibe

They had already written an endorsement of Harris before their CEO/publisher (Will Lewis) told them they couldn’t print it.

Archive

I’m not sure that the headline is saying that it’s not normal to be freaked out – just that people are freaked out.

Yep!

Both sides taking the off-ramp, returning to the shadow war, and not attacking each other directly.

999 problems and federation is probably one

Weird. Why are the powers that be hiding 3 posts from you???

Whoa, this was my 1000th post. Huzzah! (or Sorry!)

At least for now, it looks like Iran is downplaying the attacks, which is a good sign for de-escalation.

Unprecedented? Maybe? But unexpected? You’d have to have been deluded to think Iran was just going to take it.

You’ve sort of set that up as either that reaction or no reaction. Everyone expected a reaction. Iran and Israel have been at this a long time. Israel expected a reaction similar to their past actions. And they’ve always avoided direct confrontation. I don’t think I saw anyone predicting that response from Iran before it happened.

No it definitely was. The first attack from Iran from a few months back was done pretty politely.

I’m just skeptical of that. I think their second attack was similar to the first but with less lead time and better weaponry – an amped up version of their initial message which was basically, “don’t fuck with us.”

The main reason I’m skeptical is that I don’t think Iran wants war right now. They had even initially said that Hezbollah was going to responsible for the response. That led to internal debate that was won by more hard line voices. But this really couldn’t be a worse time for war for Iran. They’re probably weaker right now than they’ve ever been. Their economy is terrible and the public hates the government. Their unpopularity led to civil unrest that they violently suppressed, which restored order but increased public dislike of the government. The domestic picture is not rosy right now.

On top of that, their game plan in conflict is to be backed up by their proxies, primarily Hezbollah. That plan is in tatters now. Hamas has probably lost about 75% of their fighters. They’re in no position to be a major threat at the moment. Hezbollah has been weakened and is relatively disorganized compared to a few months ago. They had near absolute trust in Nasrallah and they probably can’t be certain that whoever replaces him will share his level of commitment. The Houthis are further away and are the least reliable of the three. Finally, Iran doesn’t have to lose to lose. Any diminishment of Iran is a relative strengthening of Saudi Arabia that shifts the balance of power in the region.

All of that taken together leads me to think their intention was to put an exclamation mark on their previous message and not dare Israel to go to war with them.

Iran’s response was literally unprecedented. No one could have reasonably expected them to react that way based on their past behaviour.

The point though, is that Israel miscalculated. They saw that attack as similar to past actions they’d taken. They didn’t see it as an escalation and, most importantly, they didn’t think Iran would see it that way. They were extremely wrong. Similarly, though based on much less information, I suspect that Iran’s most recent attack wasn’t intended as a massive escalation but as coming right up to the line without crossing it. More saying “we are deadly fucking serious.” It wasn’t taken that way.

The larger point is that two sides that don’t talk to each other making estimates of reactions to violent responses is dangerous as fuck.

Wiki:

The Maeil Business Newspaper (Korean: 매일경제신문), also simply known as Maekyung (derived from the pronunciation of the Korean name) or MK, is a comprehensive daily newspaper published in South Korea, first issued on March 24, 1966. The president of the publishing company is Chang Dae-whan.

. . .

Maeil Business Newspapers are generally moderate media, but many say they are close to pro-business conservatism.

According to coverage from ABC, there weren’t any:

Mexican army troops have killed 19 suspected drug cartel gunmen in a shootout and suffered no casualties, the Defense Department said.

Seems a bit of a stretch that that was her intention.

It’s complicated:

Threats against journalists and their sources have increased exponentially since the latest round of factional fighting broke out after two Sinaloa drug capos — one from each faction — flew to the United States and were arrested there.

. . .

Journalists have reported being stopped by gunmen on roadways outside Culiacan and told they couldn’t cover the continuing gunbattles happening on the outskirts of the city on an almost daily basis.

The fear is well founded; in 2022, one of El Debate’s columnists, Luis Enrique Ramírez, was abducted and killed in Culiacan. His beaten body was found wrapped in plastic on a dirt road outside the city.

Israel, the US, and probably others were looking for him but no one could find him. It was a chance encounter with trainee soldiers.