• 7 Posts
  • 18 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • I agree, based on these statistics. Prior to the obvious jump in bot-farmed accounts, there were about 162000 active users with an active user proportion of about 0.186 (somewhere around >29000 active users).

    Now there are 649k lemmy users and an active user proportion of 0.055 (~35600 according to the dashboard). If we assume those 35600 users represent the pre-bot-farming ratio of 0.186, we get 35600/0.186 or about just over 191000.

    That’s still an increase of probably 30k true users, unless the proportion of lurkers have also suddenly drastically increased. I don’t think that’s true, because, pre-bot-farming, when the user base started growing with the Reddit debacle, the proportion of active users increased accordingly. I assume that’s because new users are excited to help grow the community.

    Still, in the past two days alone active users went up by over 5k (15%). Maybe that’ll continue exponentially, and there’ll be 95k (500k total non-bot) users two weeks from now, or maybe it’ll continue linearly and there’ll be 70k (~385k) users.

    I don’t know why I spent so long thinking about this.









  • I think there’s a good mechanism to keep that from happening given that you can always just spin up your own instance or join a different one and still be federated with every other instance of interest.

    That current state of affairs (people having content on a multitude of instances) should keep that from happening, since a bad actor would need to capture sufficient content as to have the only instance worth visiting.

    I can’t foresee myself years from now having a problem making a new account on some-new-lemmy.place in under 3 minutes and continuing on my merry way.

    Or at least that’s how it seems to me.