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Cake day: August 3rd, 2023

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  • triclops6@lemmy.catoMemes@lemmy.mlWhich pill do you choose?
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    10 months ago

    Even if 2024, think how much smarter and further ahead of your peers you’d be:

    • you’re now at the head of the class
    • you job hunt, network, save like a pro
    • you’re the most mature person in the room
    • you get to live like a young person again (something I’d pay a lot to do)

    Downsides: never meet my partner and kids, gotta do the whole no-income thing again for a while




  • The intuition is exactly your argument:

    When the machine says yes it’s either because

    (1) the sun went nova (vanishingly small chance) and machine rolled truth (prob 35/36) – the joint probability of this (the product) is near zero

    OR

    (2) sun didn’t go nova (prob of basically one) and machine rolled lie (prob 1/36) – joint prob near 1/36

    Think of joint probability as the total likelihood. It is much more likely we are in scenario 2 because the total likelihood of that event (just under 1/36) is astronomically higher than the alternative (near zero)

    I’m skipping stuff but hopefully my words make clear what they math doesn’t always