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Joined 8 months ago
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Cake day: April 29th, 2025

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  • If the income tax graduations are steep enough then the billionaire class will optimize to minimize taxes by reducing their own income in favor of reinvesting in their business and employees. In theory. In reality I’m sure they’d find some way to squirrel it away while their employees apply for and get denied food stamps.






  • No, the difference is that when those subprime mortgages were bundled as assets, they were intentionally classed as AAA debt when they were worth much less. This created value out of thin air and allowed a shell game to be played by Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers with the big banks. The AI stuff is paid for in cash. It’s real money. It is still an incestuous investment and contracting game between the 7 major players. But that money came from the sale of stocks that are worth what they are due to market valuations and real trade (which is still bullshit).

    When the public and investors come to realize AI was oversold and its abilities were exaggerated and AGI is still a decade+ away, the valuations won’t just vanish. The circular investing game will absolutely cause stock devaluations and they will be sudden. That $560 MS stock will poof go back to $420 when they first invested in OpenAI. That will really fucking hurt the average 401k. OpenAI will probably go bankrupt. Meta will still be fucking worthless as a societal drain but paradoxically worth nearly a trillion dollars. Over 10% of the GDP of the entire US in capital will absolutely be destroyed. But it won’t take place in a moment. Investors will be stubborn and bet on the dead cat bounce and hope and pray for their gambling addiction to pay off and keep those companies on life support.




  • There is a huge difference between this bubble and the 2008 mortgage crash. In 2008 they made capital products out of debt. When that debt was worthless, so were the derivative products which caused a sudden cascading crash that wiped out trillions of dollars. This time, everything was paid for in cash and results in tangible assets. Even if AI suddenly became worthless, the money spent was real, the resulting goods were paid for with real money that doesn’t evaporate, the goods exist and can be sold or repurposed (granted those ai chips are bespoke and expeeeeensive and worthless for literally any other application than an LLM).

    So sure - its a bubble. AI is not going to magically become useful or ever really turn a profit for the companies that invested many billions. It wont replace people. It will crash. But the crash won’t be a catastrophic destruction of capital. It’ll be a slower realization that assets are overvalued and it will unwind over the course of years. And yes, companies will go bankrupt and people will lose their jobs. But not nearly on the same scale as 2008.