Now that we have final numbers. It appears that Harris had all the white & black support she needed for an EC victory. But Trump outright flipping Latino men and making huge gains with Latino women seems to have made all the difference.
What do you think?
First image is 2024, second is 2020.
Since Trump’s number one message was about immigration, it makes me wonder how Latinos took that message. A bystanding white person might think that US Latinos should be appalled at the way Trump painted Mexican immigrants as criminals.
But then again, maybe Mexican immigrants who’ve been in the US a while look down on those recently arriving, or don’t want more of them to compete with. After all if you are a Mexican immigrant, you probably compete with other Mexican immigrants for work on some level.
So there again we have the failure of identity politics. It’s about simple “me” economics, not “we” identity.
White people voting for the right is the problem. Like how can we go on here and blame Latinos for shifting when such a high percentage of white people voted for him? Especially when you factor in the population size and not just % left or right.
I am ashamed of my peers.
I know! Let’s blame EVERYBODY. That way nobody is left out and we can just admit we ALL fucked up so next time we can constructively work together to NOT fuck up instead of slinging mud at each other for the next four years.
Whole thread full of people blaming an entire race and sex whether that’s Latinos, Latino men, Whites, or White men. You ask a stupid question and you get stupid answers.
White people are so obsessed with blaming an optgroup like what about all the white guys that voted for him
What about all the white women who voted for Trump? Benefitting from structural racism is a helluva drug
… but he’ll make my racist life better, he told me! /s
Please be careful whenever you ask these questions. It’s so easy to blame one single minority group for a widespread failure. Of course analysis of individual voting groups is legitimate, as long as you properly frame what you’re doing.
This is a serious issue both because of the connection with racism (i.e., it’s the Latinos’ fault) and abdication of responsibility (i.e., we bear no responsibility).
Someone pointed out that a lot of Latinos are effectively white, like Cruz and Rubio.
Miami Cubans are absolutely convinced they’re white and not immigrants. Source : 20+ years in Miami
So at what point do they become locals? Caucasian people were also immigrants at some point
Locals to where? They are by definition Latino / Hispanic and as they came from another country straight up immigrants. Kids of said born here are locals.
Don’t forget all the people who voted for Biden in 2020 and didn’t fucking vote in 2024
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
It’s also not an accurate number. The official count for Biden in 2020 was about 81.3 million (found many places online, but the official one is a good choice) and the unofficial count for Harris by AP so far is about 74.3 million. That’s about 7 million, which is less than half of what you claimed.
People have got to stop just posting straight up false information. If you don’t know, don’t post.
It would be more appropriate to say outdated. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/11/13/20-million-votes-election-harris-trump-fact-check/76136743007/ As of November 6th 16 million less votes than the year before had been counted.
No, if you said it a week ago it would be outdated. The fact that you’re still saying it is what makes it false. As you point it out new information is available. You’re just using old information still.
By comparison if I wrote a book in the 1600s about the medical necessity of leaching, that would be outdated today. If I wrote a book about the medical necessity of leaching in 2024 that would just be false.
But they still use leeches! Because your hypothetical example is imperfect I’m afraid I’ll have to dismiss everything you said and go with the old, inaccurate numbers. What a shame.
I didn’t write a book or claim to be an authority on the subject. I stated what I remember on a subject I had read an article about 2 weeks ago.
We both know the reasonable way to interpret your post, and the way nearly everybody would interpret it, is that that’s the current or final count. It’s also outdated to say 74 million fewer people voted for Harris, but at one point, that was in fact the count. But it’s more than outdated - it’s misleading to the point of being factually inaccurate to any observer.
I can’t believe instead of being like “oh shit, I made a mistake, my bad, I better think for a second about this in the future” you’re going to try to justify it. Whatever, that’s social media at this point I guess. Surely I’m not the problem, says everybody feeding misinformation in a giant circle. I thought Lemmy might be better, but it’s just not. Thank you for convincing me to finally give all social media up.
Man you’re arguing about something so insignificant.
I didn’t know it was outdated at the time. I don’t constantly check and double things I read in passing to see if it has been updated. I am not a professional in the field.
After Donald Trump called every stripe of Latino, rapists and murderers, publicly, often and loudly, More Latinos voted for Donald Trump in this past election than have ever voted for any Republican candidate in any American election ever. Spin it any way you like.
People keep claiming this without any context. He said a subset of those who enter illegally are the worst Mexico can throw at us. He never claimed all Latinos. This is hyperbole on repeat, and the left wonders why the right ignores everything they say about Trump.
It’s basically frustration based propaganda at this point. Don’t know if you recognize it.
I used to joke that America is a terrible place, full of narcisists, liars, and assholes.
Trump isn’t the cause of this. He’s just exposed how much those jokes are based on reality, and are no longer jokes.
He’s brought to the forefront our worst qualities, and confirmed the fact that no matter how much progress America has made, we’re all still just a bunch of racists and assholes. And this time it’s not a joke. It’s confirmed.
It appears that’s what won him the election. Yes turnout was down, but the demo percentages from 2020 to 2024 are not that much different outside of Latino voters.
And I must ask? How did Trump pull this off? And would Kamala have won without the Latino rightward shift?
Donald Trump doubled (+100%) the black vote he received in 2020. Across the board minorities saw change in putting Trump back in the big seat, as apposed to the disaster he will bring to them, and their families. People went through the pandemic, only to be hit with what’s felt like the largest peacetime inflation, which was not handled by the Biden administration. Normal people don’t care about economic numbers when their paying 30-50% more for milk, eggs, bread, and rent. When faced with more of the same with no real enumerated plan to get better, and back patting, they voted for different, come what may. You know which minority group didn’t break right, Jews (+5% 3.5% being the margin of error).
Biden handled Trump’s inflation expertly though. Everyone in 2021 said we would go through a recession, and we got a soft landing instead. And groceries are not 30% more expensive. They are around 15% above 2019 prices, not even that far out from historical inflation rates.
Trump won because of economic gaslighting and you and half the people on the internet still repeat these lies.
Trump gained 2% of black men, and lost 2% of black women. He made virtually no gains with black voters.
He gained literally 1% of them. I don’t know where this narrative of trump making massive gains with black people is coming from. All the data suggest at best, a very small gain from 2020 compared to the enormous gains he received with Latinos.
Because it’s easy to lie to the half informed with statistics.
True
Is 2% of black men equal to 2% of black women in raw numbers?
It appears that’s what won him the election
There’s hundreds of “what if” imagined scenario’s that would end up with a different result.
As a data analyst, the way the two graphs are setup terribly. There’s really not enough information to come up with any conclusions from the charts.
Also, first, there’s not enough information from the graphs to determine the situation since it’s only by percentages and not population. Second, our system is based on the winners of each state and used by the electoral votes. So overall popular vote isn’t going to determine who got elected, even if the chart showed all blue for all demographics.
If that lasr column is population, latino men are 1/7 compared to white men. So the larger difference is much smaller than it appears. And how did there get to be so many more latino women than men.
No, the last column is what percentage of the vote they made up.
Ah. Similar effect in reducing the net difference
I think white men and white women bear more of the blame here purely by population size.
With how thin our election margins are, I wonder if literally just misogynists can swing the election. Would 1 in 100 Americans refuse to vote for a woman for president? I think maybe yes.
It’s hard to separate out the factors. Would a man have also struggled with a campaign starting so late (and doing so poorly in a previous primary). Would a white women? How can we separate out the influence of race, sex and the less than ideal running circumstances.
Given who she is, and running when she had to, she actually did pretty damn well.
Tbh looking for blame beyond Biden seems pointless to me. She has every sign of having been able to win over more people had she been prepped as the nominee from the start…
Agreed. Despite all the nuances (which are important, too)… Judging by this table, the biggest total blame is on white men, followed by white women and latino men, though there aren’t that many of them. But I feel i need to say this doesn’t have anything to do with ethnicity. You could also make a chart of city vs rural areas or several other factors and you’d probably also find interesting correlations and shifts in opinion.
Latines now make up 20% of the U.S. population, making them the largest minority group. Among the under-18 demographic, that number climbs to nearly 30%. If current population trends hold, Latines are poised to become the largest ethnic group in the country within about 25 years—that’s just three presidential terms away.
While Latines are a minority ethnicity, they are the largest one and the second-fastest growing, trailing only Asians. Asians, despite having one of the lowest birth rates, experience the highest proportional rate of immigration. Notably, Trump gained 12% of the Asian vote in the most recent election, a trend across these growing demographics that, if sustained, could spell significant gains for Republicans in the future.
However, let’s not overlook the broader electoral picture. Black, Asian, and Latine men and women combined make up about 29% of the voting public in presidential elections, while white women alone account for a staggering 37-38%. For context, Latino men represent just 5-6% of voters. White women are, by far, the largest voting demographic.
Interestingly, Trump increased his share of all women by 7% compared to when he ran against Biden and has increased his support from women each time he’s ran. The devastating thing, I think, is that Trump won 13% more of the 18-29-year-olds, 5% more of 30-44-year-olds, and continues to capture “Boomer Lite,” aka Gen X, a majority of whom he has won each time he’s ran, but he increased his share by 9% this time.
Edit: corrected an earlier data error.
Dude where are you getting your data? Trump won white women by 52% in 2016.
If he had lost white women like you posted, he would’ve lost the election.
Hmm. An article quoting Pew: “a majority of white women (53 percent) did vote for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, up from 44 percent in 2020 and 39 percent in 2016 per Pew.”
but I think you’re right, those numbers sound like all women. I’ll edit the post.
As another White Dude for Harris, I concur entirely. It’s definitely an issue with white dudes.
Who’s talking blame?
Need some titles on those columns. I’m guessing red/blue are the usual party colors, but what is the 3rd?
The biggest factor really is disengagement. There where millions who where involved in 2020 that just skipped out this time.
3rd is the percentage of the vote amongst all demographics.
Why are columns 1 & 2 shifter between the two images? Makes comparison harder.
The winner is always on the left. But yeah I get it.
The 3rd column might be the relative share of citizens or registered voters.
“Are we out of touch with our core voters?”
“No, it’s the voters who are wrong”.
This will probably be how the Democrats regroup after the loss.
